Credit Crunch Causes: the home as a retirement asset

A Daily Reckoning Special Report

By Bill Bonner

“Radioactive Paper” is how Forbes describes it.
 
Forbes referred to various forms of securitised debt, of which sub-prime CDOs have probably gotten the most media attention.

You’ll remember how we got to into this mess, dear reader. The whole thing was chronicled in these Daily Reckoning pages. Thanks to a mixture of good luck and bad management, the US was able to heat up the entire world economy. But now, it’s in hot water itself. Americans are up to their necks in boiling debt while Wall Street has its vaults stuffed with the kind of debt that sets off Geiger counters.

The warnings began earlier in the year. But it was only this summer that the indicators flashed a “Meltdown” signal. Since then, the papers have been announcing one calamity after another. We’re going to skip the details and go right to the big picture...

The big picture is this:

• The US has a consumer economy... 70% of GDP is consumer spending
• 20% of the entire world’s spending is done by Americans
• Americans counted on house price increases... not only for current spending but for future spending; they expected to retire on them
• Now that house prices aren’t rising... something has to give

Credit Crunch causes: Affect on using homes as retirement assets

A pause: Here's Money Magazine's Myth #13 about retirement from their recent Retire Rich issue:

“Treating your house as the ultimate retirement insurance is an easy trap to fall into. Even with the housing market in the doldrums, the five-year real estate bull market has likely left you feeling house-rich. According to a 2004 study by the National Economic Bureau, upper-income boomers ages 51 to 56 have a third of their net worth invested in their principal residence.

“As recently as May, a survey of affluent boomers by financial adviser Bell Investments Advisors found that nearly 70% were relying on their homes as a retirement asset. Question is, will the strategy work? The answer: not that well.

“Why? Because it's hard to eat out on your home equity. You have to live somewhere. To turn your equity into cash, you can sell and then rent, move to a cheaper area or downsize. Most retirees prefer to stay put. Yes, you can do what a small but growing number of retirees are doing: get a reverse mortgage, which is a loan against the value of your house that you don't have to pay back. (When you die or move out, the loan is paid off by the sale of the house, which means you may not be able to pass the home on to your children.)

“But these loans give you much less than the value of your house. For homeowners ages 62 to 69, lenders will typically let you borrow just 49% of your home equity, says Wharton finance professor Nicholas Souleles.

“The best way to look at your house is as a place to live, not a retirement account. So in the years leading up to retirement, don't over-invest in it with the idea that you can get that money out later. Keep your mortgage and other housing expenses to no more than 28% of your income, and don't prepay your mortgage instead of saving for retirement.”

Back to our discussion:
 
All this has been obvious to us for a long time. Still, until this summer, nothing gave. Consumer spending continued to rise!

But now, the latest news is that consumers are finally slacking off. Auto sales are plummeting, for example.

Of course, the first thing to go was spending on houses itself. The builders got nailed. And then, the people who financed the builders…and who lent mortgage money to borrowers who couldn’t pay it back. But nobody seemed to care…until, the ‘radioactive paper’ – derivatives based on mortgage debt – started to melt down. All of a sudden, a ‘Credit Crunch’ was in the headlines... and Wall Street was on the phone to central bankers.

Credit crunch causes: Sub Prime lending

At first, hardly anyone knew what a credit crunch was. People thought it was a new breakfast cereal. The newspapers had a problem with the story from the get-go. They didn’t know whether it should run in the Finance section…or the Police Blotter. Sub-prime lending could have been a crime story…or a financial accident; they didn’t know.

Then, the banks began to announce losses... and the numbers grew. A hundred billion here... a hundred billion there…pretty soon, we were talking about real money.

The latest estimate comes from Goldman Sachs. Goldman says total losses from sub-prime lending will hit $400 billion. But the golden boys go on to say that the losses to the economy will rise to $2 trillion.

Ah, yes, dear reader. That is how a credit crunch works. When credit is expanding, a relatively small amount of money is leveraged into a big amount of money. A borrower might use $100 million deposit, for example, to anchor a loan for $1 billion. But when credit contracts, leverage works in the opposite direction. A hundred million of capital disappears... and the $1 billion of loans are withdrawn. Altogether, Goldman expects $2 trillion in cash and credit to evaporate.

This is bad news for the US consumer.... and for the people who sell him things.  Already, there is “alarm at rising US car loan defaults,” says the Financial Times.  And gasoline in the US rose 13 cents in the last two weeks.

And, remember... the consumer has to eat! Food prices have been going up five times faster than the reported CPI.

Give them enough time and even economists can put two and two together.  Now, more and more of them are predicting a recession. And everyone has his eyes on the holiday sales figures.

But... and here is a fairly big but…a Texas-sized but, in fact: so far, the stock market has edged down... but it has not crashed. Our ‘Crash Alert’ flag is still flying. And we’ve had some exciting 300+ point declines…Just yesterday, the Dow went down more than 200 points. But no crash.
 
You’d think investors would want to get out. You’d think they’d at least want to watch what happened from the sidelines for a few weeks. But so far, we’ve seen only a steady retreat...no panic. No crash. No collapse.

The old market hands are wondering…what does the market see? How come it doesn’t correct in a major way? Do investors really think that the declining dollar will save them…? Are they expecting another big rate cut from the Fed (Bloomberg says another 0.75 points is coming…)? Do they think it will all blow over... instead of blowing up?

More tomorrow...and the day after... and the day after...

By Bill Bonner - Best-selling investment author, founder and president of Agora Publishing, one of the world's most successful consumer newsletter companies. Owner of both Fleet Street Publications and MoneyWeek magazine in the UK, he is also author of the free daily e-mail The Daily Reckoning.

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